ICI-22 - Scenario Techniques
Scenario Planning, Networked Thinking
 ”Networked Thinking” has proven itself to have great value as an efficient analysis method, able to accomodate complex, unstable market- and competitive developments. It examines the inter-dependencies of all relevant market factors and categorizes them according to importance, active influence and passive interference. This, produces a coherent, complete, understandable and communicable “business model” which can serve as a basis for strategy development, scenario development, early warning or business war gaming.
Scenario techniques play a central and fundamental role among the methods of competitive analysis.
|
Workshop foci
Overview of long-term prognoses
- Overview of long-term prognoses methods
- Expert-based methods for
- Data acquisition
- Examination of analogies
- Estimating the potential
- Areas of application
Scenario technique:
Developing competing future perspectives
- Identification of factors which influence the future market environment (for this, different methods of approach will be considered)
- Selection of key factors from a pool of influencing factors (determining relevance)
- Formation of scenarios through the bundling of key factors
- Selection and preparation of relevant goal scenarios
- Deduction of implications of the scenarios for the question of outcome (e.g. compilation of prognoses
- Overview of software for scenario techniques
Competitor prognoses through multi-parameter models (War Gaming)
- Basics of networked thinking
- System dynamic analysis
- Overview of commercial simulation software
- Realization of simulation projects
- Modelling of competitive situations
- Case study: strategy development with a War Gaming simulator
Readings
Articles
More Information
|
