ICI-26 - Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Techniques to avoid mistakes with information collection, intelligence analysis, -reporting and decision making
 Information for Competitive Intelligence analysis comes from multiple sources that have different references and come in many forms of media, closeness, and familiarity to the analyst. Credibility, time sequence, and relevance of the information is difficult to determine directly and changes constantly during the course of the research. Furthermore, conflicting information as well as misinformation is part of the everyday work of a Competitive Intelligence analyst. To be able to generate high quality results, despite these potential cognitive perception mistakes and biases, the Competitive Intelligence analyst has to be able to reliably use preventive tools and techniques for avoiding mistakes.
If the Competitive Intelligence analyst doesn’t arrange for precautionary measures, an opportunistic information analysis will result.
In this workshop, pragmatic strategies to prevent typical Intelligence analysis mistakes will be described and tested with numerous examples by the attendees in the exercises.
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Workshop foci
Perceptional mistakes with information processing and intelligence analysis
- Expectation versus wishful thinking
- Dominance of mindsets
- Dynamics of information perception
- Preconception
Cognitive biases with intelligence analysis
- Mistakes with the assessment of evidence
- Mistakes with the perception of cause and effect
- Mistakes with the estimation of probabilities
- Blind spots
Mistakes with intelligence reporting
- Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
- Basic principles of reporting
Typical decision making mistakes
- Why even intelligent people can make blatant and wrong decisions
- Lessons learned from completed Competitive Intelligence projects (feedback and performance measurement)
- Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
- Basic principles of reporting
Methods to avoid typical Intelligence mistakes
- Analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)
- Mental tool kits
- Check lists
Readings
More Information
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