ICI-26 - Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Techniques to avoid mistakes with information collection, -analysis, -reporting and decision making

Information for CI analysis comes from multiple sources that have different references and come in many forms of media, closeness, and familiarity to the analyst. Credibility, time sequence, and relevance of the information is difficult to determine directly and changes constantly during the course of the research. Furthermore, conflicting information as well as misinformation is part of the everyday work of a CI analyst. To be able to generate high quality results, despite these potential cognitive perception mistakes and biases, the CI analyst has to be able to reliably use preventive tools and techniques for avoiding mistakes. If the CI analyst doesn’t arrange for precautionary measures, an opportunistic information analysis will result. In this workshop, pragmatic strategies to prevent typical Intelligence analysis mistakes will be described and tested with numerous examples by the attendees in the exercises.

Workshop foci

Perceptional mistakes with information processing and analysis

• Expectation versus wishful thinking
• Dominance of mindsets
• Dynamics of information perception
• Preconception

Cognitive biases with data analysis

• Mistakes with the assessment of evidence
• Mistakes with the perception of cause and ef­fect
• Mistakes with the estimation of probabilities
• Blind spots

Mistakes with Intelligence reporting

• Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
• Basic principles of reporting

Typical decision making mistakes

• Why even intelligent people can make blatant and wrong decisions
• Lessons learned from completed CI projects (feedback and perfor­mance measurement)
• Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
• Basic principles of reporting

Methods to avoid typical Intelligence mistakes

• Analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)
• Mental tool kits
• Check lists

Readings

• Military Intelligence Blunders (by John Hughes-Wilson and Colonel John Hughes-Wilson)
• Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (by Richard J. Heuer, Jr.)
• Business Blindspots (by Benjamin Gilad)
• When Bad Analysis Happens to Good People (Paul Dishman, 2003)

More Information

• Online registration
• All Workshops, Dates, Fees
• PDF-Catalog
• Speaker: Prof. Jörs