ICI-23 - Decision, Risk and Bayes' Analysis
Quantify the effects of your decisions using Decision Analysis, Risk Analysis and Bayes' Analysis!
 Among the many tasks of Competitive Intelligence analysts and managers is support of decision-making and active involvement in strategic and operative processes. Good decisions are based on the realistic assessment of uncertainties and risks, the identification of one’s own alternatives and ascertaining the effects on one’s own company. For the solution of complex decision tasks, with numerous, reciprocally influencing decision parameters and non-deterministic consequences, the structured approaches of decision analysis and risk analysis are of high value in practical experience. |
Workshop foci
Fundamentals of decision analysis and risk analysis
- What are risks and uncertainties?
- Monte Carlo simulations
- Impact diagrams and decision trees
- Presentation of results
- Planning and realization of decision analysis projects
Introduction into the fundamentals of probability theory and statistics
- Probability distributions
- Conversion of observations and expert evaluations into distributions
- Correlations and conditional dependencies
Case study 1: Risk analysis of a product introduction
- Approaches to problem structuring
- Analysis (Monte Carlo simulation)
- Interpretation of results (risk profile, sensitivity analyses)
- Value of further Intelligence
Case study 2: Investment decision with and without intelligence
- Approaches to problem structuring
- Analysis of the decision situation
- Presentation of results: Optimal decision strategy for the given risk preference
Forecast on further methods and final discussion
- Open questions and feedback
More Information
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