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ICI-22 - Scenario Techniques

Scenario Planning, Networked Thinking

Image”Networked Thinking” has proven itself to have great value as an efficient analysis method, able to accomodate complex, unstable market- and competitive developments. It examines the inter-dependencies of all relevant market factors and categorizes them according to importance, active influence and passive interference. This, produces a coherent, complete, understandable and communicable “business model” which can serve as a basis for strategy development, scenario development, early warning or business war gaming.

Scenario techniques play a central and fundamental role among the methods of competitive analysis.

Workshop foci

Overview of long-term prognoses

  • Overview of long-term prognoses methods
  • Expert-based methods for
  • Data acquisition
  • Examination of analogies
  • Estimating the potential
  • Areas of application

Scenario technique:
Developing competing future perspectives

  • Identification of factors which influ­ence the future market environment (for this, different methods of approach will be consid­ered)
  • Selection of key factors from a pool of influ­encing factors (determining relevance)
  • Formation of scenarios through the bundling of key factors
  • Selection and preparation of relevant goal sce­narios
  • Deduction of implications of the scenarios for the question of outcome (e.g. compilation of prognoses
  • Overview of software for scenario techniques

Competitor prognoses through multi-parameter models (War Gaming)

  • Basics of networked thinking
  • System dynamic analysis
  • Overview of commercial simulation software
  • Realization of simulation projects
  • Modelling of competitive situations
  • Case study: strategy development with a War Gaming simulator

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