ICI-22 - Scenario Techniques

Strategically plan the future of companies through the application of scenarios

Scenarios are descriptions of potential future market and competitive situations. The consideration of alternative images of the future enables the development of appropriate business strategies that may also withstand serious environmental changes. These might include investment decisions or product developments as well as acquisitions or purchasing decisions, for example. Scenarios can be used as an initial basis for early warning systems, risk analyses or Business War Games. Workshop participants obtain the necessary theoretical and practical tools in order to be able to apply comprehensive scenario techniques.

Workshop foci

Different methods for long-term business planning

• Time series and trend extrapolation
• Dynamic regression
• System modeling
• Scenarios

Scenario techniques: Development of alternative images of the future in eight steps

• Structuring and definition of the issue
• Identification of important influencing factors
• Partial prognoses and trend projections
• Mapping of consistent bundles of characteristics for alternative future scenarios
• Description of different images of the future
• Inclusion of “disruptive events”
• Derivation of strategic consequences
• Integration of strategic planning into the process

Example: Nuclear power generation

• Collection of influencing variables
• Alternative development possibilities
• Cross impact and consistency matrices
• Inclusion of disruptive events

Scenario mapping in workshops

• Effort and cost
• Difficulties and solutions

Software for computer-assisted scenario mapping

• Provider
• Cost and benefit

Readings

• The Art of the Long View (by Peter Schwartz)
• Learning from the Future (by Liam Fahey and Robert M. Randall)

Articles

• Competitor Scenarios: Projecting a Rival‘s Marketplace Strategy (by Liam Fahey, 1999)

More Information

• Online registration
• All Workshops, Dates, Fees
• PDF-Catalog
• Speaker: Dr. Krampe